Global pharmaceutical market projections through 2030
Last week, we reported on a new report from the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission that stated China has such a dominant position in active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) production that there is a risk it could "weaponise" access. Around a quarter of all medicines used in the US rely on ingredients and intermediates sourced either from China directly or indirectly via other countries like India.
In Evaluate’s recently released annual World Preview Report, including updated global pharmaceutical market projections through 2030, it was projected that worldwide drug sales will grow at a CAGR of over 7% into 2030, with China’s biopharma sector rapidly reshaping the market. Indeed, China-sourced assets accounted for just 3% of all licensing deals in 2020, yet in 2025 will make up almost 40%.
China, and Asia at large, are very much coming into the mainstream. In order to discuss China's rise on the pharmaceutical landscape, and discuss other forward-looking considerations for 2026 and beyond - including growth within the GLP-1 agonist market and the continuing prominence of immunology and oncology - pharmaphorum spoke with Daniel Chancellor, VP of Thought Leadership at Norstella.
Q: The report found that the patent cliff dilemma grows for companies beyond Merck, including Bristol Meyers Squibb and Pfizer – with potentially $300 billion in lost sales by 2030. This given, what's next for biopharma M&A?
After a quiet 2024 for M&A, the urgency with which some companies need to act to replenish their pipeline is growing. So, the outlook for M&A is positive, at least on the demand side. We have identified a cohort of large pharmas whose below-average growth rates and exposure to the patent cliff mean that they will likely be very active in the short term. However, supply is the most important factor. There are only so many M&A opportunities that provide reliable near-term revenue growth, with the right strategic fit, and at a price that makes sense from an investment point of view.
Q: Why and how is China’s biopharma sector rapidly reshaping the market?
Chinese companies are now an important source of new medicines and our data shows that their share of out-licensing deals has grown to 40% this year. The ecosystem has some inherent advantages in speed and scale, which allow Western companies to pick up mid-/late-stage drugs with relatively favorable deal terms.
And this business model also suits the Chinese innovator as it provides near-term funding, scientific validation, and access to patients in the US and Europe without investing in all of the necessary overheads.
Q: GLP-1 agonists are now in a class of their own — expected to grow at 20% per year and make up nearly 9% of all prescription drug sales by 2030. Can you comment on this?
The size of the market opportunity makes GLP-1s unlike any other drug class that has gone before them. At peak, the PD-1 market is expected to be worth $55bn; statins in the region of ~$30bn. Evaluate’s latest consensus estimate for the GLP-1 market is $167bn by 2030, and it may continue to grow beyond this. And for the entire market to be split between two molecules is unique – it remains to be seen whether any later market entrants will get meaningful market share.
Q: Immunology and oncology remain market powerhouses, with AbbVie’s Skyrizi and Sanofi’s Dupixent featuring among 2030’s top ten best-sellers. Why is this?
The amount of investment into oncology and immunology R&D has been tremendous so that provides considerable momentum for these therapeutic areas. The challenge is to continue to address new unmet need as the clinical bar is raised further and further, and existing standards of care become low-cost generics or biosimilars. We are now seeing the first evidence that companies are pulling back from oncology research slightly, but this is only in relative terms and it will continue to remain a strategic focus for the foreseeable future.
About the interviewee
Daniel Chancellor is a biopharma industry advisor with ~15 years of experience spanning drug discovery, market analysis, competitive intelligence, and strategic consulting. Currently delivering and overseeing thought leadership activities for Norstella and its constituent brands, using proprietary, gold-standard datasets to communicate the opportunities and challenges facing the industry today, Chancellor is a regular contributor to Scrip and In Vivo newsletters, external commentator for leading business publications, plus a frequent speaker and presenter at pharma conferences across the US, Europe, and Japan.
