Lilly falls on slower start for Foundayo versus Wegovy
Sky-high expectations for sales of Eli Lilly's new oral GLP-1 agonist Foundayo have been dented by initial data from IQVIA, which shows slower initial take-up for the drug compared to Novo Nordisk's first-to-market Wegovy pill.
The data – revealed by analysts at Jefferies – showed Foundayo (orforglipron) prescriptions were 1,390 in its first week on the market and 3,707 in the second, which does not compare favourably with the first two weeks for oral Wegovy (semaglutide), with figures of more than 3,000 in the first few days of its launch in January and 18,410 in its second week.
The demand for Novo Nordisk's product could have been inflated by pent-up demand for the first oral alternative to established GLP-1-targeting drugs for weight loss, which needed to be injected once a week, with that factor blunted by the time Foundayo reached the market in early April.
Nevertheless, the preliminary prescribing data is a fillip for the Danish company, which has seen its dominant position in the weight-loss market with Wegovy injection steadily eroded in the last few months by the breakneck growth of Lilly's Zepbound (tirzepatide), a dual GLP-1/GIP agonist that achieved better weight loss in a head-to-head trial.
That head-to-head battle has now moved into the oral space, with each company arguing their pill has advantages over the other.
Lilly is emphasising that Foundayo can be taken any time of day, without food or water restrictions, while Wegovy has to be taken first thing in the morning on an empty stomach, half an hour before eating or drinking.
Novo Nordisk is banking on its strong brand recognition, first-mover advantage, a claimed efficacy edge for Wegovy over Foundayo in terms of weight loss achieved, and restrictions that appear in Foundayo's label, including that the drug should not be taken alongside oral birth control or the widely used cholesterol-lowering drug simvastatin. It also highlights the approval of the injectable version of the drug for cardiovascular risk reduction.
Shares in Lilly fell almost 4% after the IQVIA data was reported, but have grown strongly in the last 12 months on the back of big sales increases for Zepbound and tirzepatide-based Mounjaro for type 2 diabetes.
All eyes will be on the two companies' first-quarter results updates, due for Lilly on 30th April and Novo Nordisk on 6th May, to get further insights on the take-up of the oral therapies, as well as scrutiny of the trajectory of injectable Wegovy and Zepbound, given that an oral alternative has been available for most of the three-month period.
In a report published earlier this year, Clarivate predicted that Foundayo will bring in a massive $11.1 billion in G7 country obesity sales in 2031, with another $5.2 billion from use in diabetes.
