Lilly says 2026 looks good, as sales rocket in Q4
Eli Lilly is predicting strong sales and profit growth in 2026, seemingly shrugging off the pricing pressure that weighed heavily on Novo Nordisk, its main rival in the obesity market.
The upbeat assessment comes on the back of a stellar 43% rise in fourth-quarter revenues to $19.3 billion, which it said was driven by "volume growth" for its tirzepatide-based obesity therapy Zepbound and Mounjaro for diabetes.
Both those drugs are now subject to most-favoured nation (MFN) pricing deals with the Trump administration, like Novo Nordisk's competing semaglutide-based therapies Wegovy and Ozempic. However, while Novo Nordisk is modelling a steep sales fall for the current year as a result, Lilly reckons its full-year revenues will rise from just over $65 billion in 2025 to more than $80 billion in 2026.
The disparity seems to stem from Zepbound's strong growth in obesity, fuelled by data showing it offers superior weight loss to Wegovy. In the fourth quarter, sales of Lilly's drug surged 123% to $4.26 billion, well ahead of analyst expectations and outstripping Wegovy's 17% growth to $3.46 billion, with sales of Novo Nordisk's drug actually falling 2% in the US, reversing a long period of strong growth.
Lilly chief executive David Ricks said that 2025 was "an important year" for the company, including in its efforts to expand access to obesity medicines through investments in manufacturing, the pricing deal with the US federal government, and expansion of its direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales channels such as LillyDirect.
"Entering our 150th year with a deep pipeline and platforms like LillyDirect, we're positioned to reach more patients than ever and expand our global health impact," he added.
Both companies are juggling reduced prices with the promise of wider access to their weight-loss medicines in the US market.
The battleground between Lilly and Novo Nordisk will shift this year following the approval and launch of oral Wegovy, reportedly already off to a strong start, with Lilly's orforglipron poised to follow in the coming weeks, assuming it gets approval from the FDA.
Meanwhile, on the injectables side of the weight-loss category, 2026 could potentially see Novo Nordisk's dual therapy CagriSema (cagrilintide and semaglutide) face off against Lilly's new triple agonist retatrutide.
Pfizer data falls flat
One company hoping to make headway against the duopoly held by Lilly and Novo Nordisk in weight loss, Pfizer, also saw its share price come under pressure this week after reporting data from a phase 2 trial of one of its candidates that seemed to disappoint investors.
Results with once-monthly injectable PF-08653944, acquired as part of Pfizer's $10 billion takeover of Metsera, showed maximum weight loss of 10.5% after six months in the phase 2b VESPER-3 trial. Shares in Pfizer slipped around 3% after the announcement.
