Lilly climbs on stellar GLP-1 drug sales gain

Shares in Eli Lilly were rising this morning after the company celebrated a massive 54% increase in its third-quarter revenues to $17.6 billion, driven by its medicines for diabetes and obesity.

Mounjaro for diabetes and Zepbound for obesity – both based on dual GLP-1/GIP agonist tirzepatide – both saw their sales more than double compared to the same quarter of last year, rising 109% to $6.52 billion and 185% to $3.59 billion, respectively.

Both sales figures came in well ahead of analyst expectations and will heap pressure on Lilly's main rival in the GLP-1 category, Novo Nordisk, which is due to report its third-quarter figures on 5th November and has just launched an unsolicited $9 billion takeover for obesity startup Metsera, trying to disrupt a marriage with Pfizer.

Lilly said it now expects to post full-year revenues in the $63 to $63.5 billion range, up from an earlier forecast of $60 to $62 billion, and also raised predicted earnings-per-share to $23.00-$23.70 from $21.75-$23.00.

All eyes were on the performance of Zepbound in the US after pharmacy benefit manager (PBM) CVS Health dropped the drug from its formulary earlier this year, whilst retaining Novo Nordisk rival Wegovy, but concerns of weakness in the US market have been dispelled by the big increase, which came despite some downward pricing pressure. Outside the US, tirzepatide is branded as Mounjaro for both diabetes and obesity.

This week, Lilly announced a partnership with Walmart to expand access to Zepbound by making the drug available at direct-to-consumer (DTC) prices – with a valid prescription – through the latter's network of 4,600 pharmacy locations and via home delivery.

All GLP-1 drugs could come in for pricing pressure from the Trump administration, which has indicated it wants to see the prices of these medicines come down substantially, and Lilly and Novo Nordisk are both reported to be negotiating pricing deals to ward off the threat of high pharmaceutical tariffs.

Merck KGaA, AstraZeneca, and Pfizer have already announced deals with the Trump administration that will see some of their medicines provided at most-favoured nation (MFN) prices in return for protection from tariffs, as long as they also commit to major investments in US facilities.

Lilly has already committed to a $27 billion investment programme in manufacturing plants, and yesterday said it would spend $1.2 billion to expand and modernise its Lilly del Caribe manufacturing site in Puerto Rico, which will boost its oral medicine manufacturing capacity in the US and create around 100 new jobs.

The plant will be one of those that will manufacture orforglipron, Lilly's oral GLP-1 agonist, which has generated positive results in four phase 3 trials in diabetes and obesity and is due to be filed for approval in the latter indication before the end of the year.

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