Emerging markets’ spending set to nearly double by 2016

Hannah Blake

pharmaphorum

The global market for medicines is set to rebound from an expected low point of 3–4 % growth in 2012 to 5–7 % by 2016. In terms of spending, this growth will go from US $194 billion in 2011 to US $345–375 billion in 2016, according to healthcare analysts in a report by IMS Health.

The expected rise comes from a combination of increasing income levels, increasing affordability of medicines, plus the roll-out of government healthcare programmes designed to increase access to treatments for poorer patients. Generics and other products, including over-the-counter medicines, diagnostics and non-therapeutics, will account for approximately 83% of the increase.

Biological manufacturers will benefit from the expanding market opportunity, as will manufacturers of small molecule generics, who will most likely experience accelerating growth.

“As health systems around the world grapple with macroeconomic pressures and the demand for expanded access and improved outcomes, medicines will play an even more vital role in patient care over the next five years. The trillion-dollar spending on medicines we forecast for 2016 represents a rebound in growth that will accentuate the challenges of access and affordability facing those who consume and pay for healthcare around the world.”

Murray Aitken, executive director, IMS Institute for Healthcare informatics.

While the emerging pharma market spend is set to nearly double, health systems in developed economics will experience a slow growth in medicine spending. Spending in the US will only grow by US $ 35–45 billion over the next five years, driven by the implementation of the Affordable Care Act, despite the highest number of patent expiries in history. In Europe, growth will be in the range of 1–2 % due to healthcare cost-containment initiatives and significant austerity programmes.