Think tomorrow to act today

Strategy, by definition, is about the future. Yet in the pharma world of evidence and data we often neglect foresight in our strategy building. David Coleiro explores the reasons for this and makes a case for a change of mindset.

As an industry we rely heavily on evidence and data. Where patients' lives are involved this is definitely a good thing. However, this strength in analytical thinking can lead to a bias towards retrospective, rather than prospective, analysis and means that often we are less focused on the future than we should be. As it takes an estimated 15 to 20 years to develop, test and license a new drug and changes to the healthcare environment are constant and accelerating, looking to the future should be a core capability for the pharma industry.

So why don't we do it?

There is one simple reason: we are human beings and therefore we all have multiple cognitive biases. Some of these often lead us to ignore the future in our decision making. These biases include:

• Anchoring effect: Over-reliance on a single, or initial, piece of information or knowledge when making a decision. This is why we all ladder information up to 'the key take-away' and why key messages work in marketing

• Backfire effect: Reaction to discomforting evidence by strengthening opposing existing beliefs. This is why, in the olden days, people were burned at the stake (a pretty major backfire effect!) for proposing, against beliefs held at the time, that the Earth travelled round the sun, for example. Today, it is also one of the powerful reasons why smokers continue to smoke despite overwhelming evidence of the negative impact on their health. The more people and society tell them to stop, the more they are convinced to continue smoking

• Ambiguity effect: Tendency to avoid options for which missing information makes the probability seem 'unknown'. This is why people put money in lower-return 'safe' investments, rather than in the stock market where there is an ambiguous return

• Optimism bias: The over-prediction of positive outcomes. If we think that things will always work out well for our brand or business then why concern ourselves with the future?

"When quarterly and annual targets have to be met, who has the time, energy or focus for events which are three, five or 10 years away?"

The future is scary, unknown and always somewhere in the distance, so often we choose to ignore it. This is also true in a business context where organisational structures support short-term thinking. When quarterly and annual targets have to be met, who has the time, energy or focus for events which are three, five or 10 years away?

Yet any upcoming event, whether a new product launch, competitor patent expiry, change to treatment guidelines, potential new indication or shift in government policy, impacts the future and changes the competitive environment. Whether six months, two years or a decade away, it is the future. If you are 100 per cent confident that none of these things is going to happen in your market, then focus on the here-and-now. But in today's fast-changing healthcare world, is that realistic?

Why should we do it?

Strategy, by definition, is about the future. Considering the changing elements, like those listed, that may impact your commercial environment is crucial to success. This should not be a conceptual, futuristic exercise, but used to help build a plan to achieve goals and ensure the right choices and actions are taken today.

"Future thinking aligns to the mindset of the pharma industry"