Novartis raises mid-term sales outlook on pipeline promise
Novartis chief executive Vas Narasimhan
Novartis said this morning that its pipeline includes more than 30 high-value projects that allow it to achieve sales growth of 6% or more between out to 2029, a point higher than its earlier guidance.
The improved outlook will be underpinned by eight medicines already in the market with peak sales potential of between $3 billion and $8 billion-plus, said the company at a 'meet management' event running in London today.
The raised forecast reflects increases in the sales projections for a sweep of its current drugs – including Cosentyx, Kisqali, Kesimpta, Pluvicto, and Leqvio – and more than 15 data readouts that could lead to regulatory filings within the next two years, said chief executive Vas Narasimhan.
The event comes just over a year after Novartis completed the dismantling of its diversified life sciences model with the spinout of generic and biosimilar developer Sandoz, leaving it as a pure play in innovative, branded medicines.
Narasimhan is expecting four upcoming launches to fall into the multibillion-dollar peak sales category; namely, oral BTK inhibitor remibrutinib, Akcea-partnered Lp(a) drug pelacarsen, gene therapy OAV101 IT, and anti-BAFF-R antibody ianalumab.
Remibrutinib is heading for filing in chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) next year, with follow-up indications in multiple sclerosis and chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU), due to read out in 2026.
Pelacarsen is in a cardiovascular outcomes trial in patients with elevated Lp(a) levels, with results expected in 2025, while pivotal results with OAV101 IT – a follow-up to Novartis' spinal muscular atrophy (SMA) gene therapy Zolgensma with simpler administration – should be forthcoming before the end of this year.
2025 should see results for ianalumab in Sjogren's syndrome and as a second-line therapy for immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), with a first-line ITP study due to generate data in 2026.
"Longer term, we've identified more than 30 assets in the pipeline with significant potential to rejuvenate our portfolio and support mid-single-digit growth post 2029," said Narasimhan, who also pointed to more than 30 "strategic deals" in the last two years aimed at bolstering the company's early-stage pipeline.
"Taken together, we remain confident in our focused strategy and ability to deliver sustainable value creation for shareholders."
Mid- to late-stage programmes deemed by Novartis to be high-value assets include IgA nephropathy (IgAN) candidate zigakibart, DLX3131 for Parkinson's disease, pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) therapy LTP001, and VHB937 for Alzheimer's and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS).
